US dollar falls, metals show mixed performance, LME and SHFE tin fall over 2%, SHFE nickel rises over 1%, coking coal and coke fall over 1% [overnight market]

SMM May 30 Report:

Metal Market:

Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel rose by 2.56%, and SHFE nickel increased by 1.25%. LME tin fell by 2.48%, and LME lead dropped by 1.11%. SHFE tin decreased by 2.28%, while the price changes of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina futures contract remained flat at 2,954 yuan/mt.

The ferrous metals series also showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose by 0.39%, iron ore increased by 0.35%, and rebar gained 0.07%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.96%, and coke dropped by 1.31%.

In the precious metals sector, as of the overnight close, COMEX gold rose by 0.61%, and COMEX silver increased by 0.84%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.96%, and SHFE silver increased by 0.28%.

Overnight closing prices as of 8:14 AM on May 30

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Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[Preview: The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) will hold its regular May press conference from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM on May 30] The CCPIT will organize its regular May press conference at its auditorium from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM on May 30 (Friday). Zhao Ping, the CCPIT spokesperson, will release the following: the Global Economic and Trade Friction Index for March 2025, commercial certification data from the national trade promotion system for April 2025, the "Business Environment Report on Japan 2024" and the "Business Environment Report on South Korea 2024", outcomes of the 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit, and a preview of events for the Osaka Expo, among others.

Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), visited the China Automotive Technology & Research Center Co., Ltd. to investigate the company's business development, technological innovation, and Party building work. Zhang Yuzhuo emphasized the need to strive for breakthroughs and master more key core technologies, consolidate the foundation of industrial technology, leverage the leading role of industry standards, and support national automobile brands in better "going global."

On May 29, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. Spokesperson He Yongqian stated that the EU had initiated an anti-dumping investigation into China's passenger car and light truck tire products, to which China expressed great concern. China has consistently advocated for the reasonable and prudent use of trade remedy measures and urged the EU not to hastily impose trade restrictions, but rather to resolve mutual concerns through dialogue and consultation with China. China will closely monitor the EU's subsequent actions and resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.

US Dollar Developments:

The US dollar fell by 0.52% overnight as investors prepared for the showdown between US President Trump and the US Court of International Trade's ruling, which blocked most of the proposed tariffs on Wednesday. According to CCTV News, on May 29 local time, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend a previous ruling by the US Court of International Trade that prohibited the enforcement of an executive order by the Trump administration to impose additional tariffs on multiple countries under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit also ordered both parties to submit written arguments on the issue of blocking the imposition of tariffs, with relevant documents due to be submitted by early next month. The court will then decide on the next steps. The US dollar showed a relatively small reaction to this news.

Concerns that tariffs would lead to an economic slowdown and reignite inflation had weakened the US dollar, while the erratic nature of Trump's policies was seen as diminishing the appeal of US assets to foreign investors. Due to fears of rising inflation, the US Fed had been holding off, as Fed officials were waiting to see how trade policies would affect the US economy. During a private meeting at the White House on Thursday, Trump told Fed Chairman Powell that it was a "mistake" not to cut interest rates, expressing in person a view he had made public several times over the past few months. Earlier this week, after Trump postponed plans over the weekend to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports, US economic pessimism had eased somewhat.

Data released by the US showed that the increase in initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate in May appeared to have rebounded somewhat, indicating that as tariffs cast a shadow over the economic outlook, the number of layoffs continued to rise, weakening the US dollar as a result.

Investors were also monitoring the progress of tax cut and spending bills under consideration in Congress. Amid growing concerns about the deterioration of the US fiscal outlook, yields on longer-term US Treasuries rose last week, and demand for the Treasury's 20-year bond auction was weak.

In other currency news:

The euro rose 0.73% against the US dollar in New York late trading, closing at $1.1374, after dipping to $1.1209, its lowest level since May 19. The US dollar fell 0.57% against the Japanese yen, closing at 143.99 yen. Earlier, it had reached 146.28 yen, its highest level since May 15. The US dollar fell 0.59% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.822.

Earlier this week, the yen also weakened against the US dollar amid reports that Japan would consider cutting the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds following a recent sharp rise in yields.

In terms of data:

Today, data including the monthly rate of US personal spending in April, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April, the annual rate of the US PCE price index in April, the preliminary monthly rate of US wholesale inventories in April, the Chicago PMI for May, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May, the annual rate of Tokyo CPI in Japan for May, the unemployment rate in Japan for April, the monthly rate of actual retail sales in Germany for April, the annual rate of actual retail sales in Germany for April, the preliminary annual rate of Germany's CPI for May, the annual rate of seasonally adjusted M3 money supply in the eurozone for April, the annualized quarterly rate of Canada's Q1 GDP, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of Canada's Q1 GDP, and the annual rate of Canada's seasonally adjusted GDP for March will be released.

Additionally, on May 30, the Taiwan Stock Exchange in China was closed for the day due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) in China had no night session trading on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver the opening remarks at the Fifth Annual Online Symposium on Macroeconomics and Finance hosted by the Federal Reserve.

Crude oil:

Oil prices in both markets rose overnight, with US crude and Brent crude both falling by 1.49%. Investors weighed the potential impact of possible changes in the global trade landscape. The market is also monitoring the possibility of the US imposing new sanctions to curb the flow of Russian crude oil, as well as whether OPEC+ will decide to increase production in July.

According to CCTV News, on May 28 local time, a CCTV reporter learned that the US Court of International Trade had blocked the implementation of the tariff policy announced by US President Trump on "Liberation Day" on April 2, ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing across-the-board tariffs on countries that export more to the US than they import. Driven by this news, oil prices rose at the beginning of the trading session. The ruling boosted risk appetite in global markets, but analysts said that given the US government's stated intention to appeal, this relief in pressure may only be temporary.

Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates, a US energy consulting firm, said in a report, "One interpretation of this reaction is that not much has changed, and the uncertainty that has persisted since the implementation of US tariff measures will continue." Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Thursday that developments in Russia and Iran are a "question mark" for oil prices, putting pressure on crude oil futures.

In terms of oil supply, OPEC+, which consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, may agree to accelerate production increases in July. ING analysts said in a report, "We expect the group to agree to another significant supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day. We anticipate such increases to continue until the end of Q3, as the group is placing greater emphasis on maintaining market share." However, concerns about new sanctions on Russian crude oil persist.

Mukesh Sahdev, Global Head of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, said in a report, "From May to August, the data shows a constructive bullish bias, with demand expected to exceed supply." He expects demand growth to outpace supply growth by 600,000-700,000 barrels per day. Crude oil futures narrowed some of their losses on Thursday. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.8 million barrels in the latest week, declining to 440.4 million barrels, which contributed to crude oil futures narrowing some of their losses on Thursday. Analysts had previously expected crude oil inventory to increase by 118,000 barrels last week. (Wenhua Comprehensive)